By Dr. Santhanam Prabhakar, Consulting Editor
Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections 2026 in the offing. The state stands at a pivotal crossroads where tradition meets a rapidly evolving political landscape. Historically dominated by the bipolar rivalry between the DMK and AIADMK, this election cycle introduces a “third pole” that could redefine the Dravidian political identity for a new generation.
What the History all about
The first non-Congress Government in Tamil Nadu was formed by DMK in 1967, after 18 years of its coming into being. A All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) under M.G. Ramachandran (MGR), a popular film star formed its government in 1977, within five years of its existence, a record at that time.
Since 1967, power was shared alternatively between DMK and AIADMK every five years, with the exception of Jayalalithaa, the supremo of AIADMK shrewdly managed to outclass DMK alliance in 2016 to be in power in two consecutive terms.
This feat was held earlier by late MGR who could win elections continuously in 1977, 1980 and 1984, and adorned the chair of Chief Minister till his death in 1987. These two Dravidian parties ran Tamil Nadu on planks like ideology, social justice, federalism.
Where does ruling, DMK Satnd?
After the demise of Jayalalithaa, AIADMK faltered without any mass leader. Factionalism and disintegration led to the downfall at the hustings in 2021, which helped a solid cadre-based party, DMK, under M.K. Stalin, bested its major opponent, AIADMK, Congress, CPI, CPIM.
The reason for the success of DMK-led alliance in the elections was its alliance with the influential players of Tamil Nadu, including the matinee idol, Kamal Hassan’s party, Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM), apart from Congress, CPI, CPIM, Indian Union Muslim League (IUML). Kamal Hassan was rewarded with Rajya Sabha seat in 2025.
Schemes like Kalaignar Magalir Urimai Thittam (monthly financial aid for women), Pudhumai Penn (financial aid for girl students), Vidiyal Payanam (free bus travel for women), and the Chief Minister’s Breakfast Scheme for school children were successfully implemented. One can see resonance of these schemes on the ground.
In 2026 elections, Stalin so far could manage two more alliance parties, the DMDK, and the former Chief Minister, O. Paneerselvam of splinter AIADMK in the DMK-led alliance fold.
Stalin government focused on youth, more particularly after the announcement of actor Vijay’s entry into the electoral field. A skill development scheme and various job fairs which Government claims benefitted six lakh youth from skill training and recruitment of one lakh plus youth.
Two crore youth are expected to vote for actor Vijay’s party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). He is going solo with this youth power. Will two crore youth en masse vote for actor Vijay’s untested party is a big question mark? So also the other Tamil party led by actor Seeman, Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK). He managed about 8 per cent votes in 2024 Lok Sabha elections by going solo. This time, it is anticipated that his party’s share would go down drastically.
On February 13, 2026, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.K. Stalin credited a total of Rs.5,000 into the bank accounts of over 1.31 crore women beneficiaries under the Kalaignar Magalir Urimai Thogai (Women’s Rights Grant) scheme.
This may turn out to be a game changer in Tamil Nadu elections like in Bihar. Many incumbent governments in Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh in spite of implementing good schemes lost the mandate. DMK-led alliance has an edge.
Will the Modi-factor work at all?
Modi factor has not come to fore so far. As we near electoral campaign, BJP may get some foothold, with its well-oiled campaign, which may not be enough to have a respectable number of seats in the elections. BJP is expected to touch two figure seats in the Assembly.
In last general elections 2024, BJP was unable to open the account in TN, all 39 seats fetched by DMK led India Coalition. But the vote share of the saffron party increased by 10%.
The Final Take
Full majority is anticipated by the DMK-led alliance if we go into the arithmetic of vote share.  Political analysts are of the view that in the case of hung Assembly, there will be political churning among the alliances.
DMK-led alliance has an edge over the AIADMK-led alliance, where BJP is located.
In 2006, DMK could get only 96 seats, nowhere near the absolute majority of seats of 118 in the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly.
Nevertheless DMK ruled the State for five years with the help its alliance partners. We have to wait and watch as a new prominent party is entering the electoral arena.
(The writer, Dr. Santhanam Prabhakar has done M.A.in Politics & a PhD holder. If any further information you need please contact at newzville2024@gmail.com)
